Now call me an idiot, but how does something called 'sudden stratospheric warming' equate to it getting colder? :p :lol:

I presume being stratospheric it's quite high up and probably impacts temperatures and pressures but through changeable weather at lower altitude... But I'm no expert so am stabbing in the dark here!

:google::google: - sounds good rob Pmsl :ok:

Thought A-Level Geography might crop up again somewhere in my life, I didn't get a great exam result though and my guess above could back that up.

Pretty much, pushes colder weather out from the poles. Forces the jetstream to take a more southerly route.

Before Nathan Rao and crew go all SNOWMAGEDDON again, the signs are its starting, along with a now negative AO, it looks like the early winter reports of warm start/cold finish are looking more likely. Some of the data being thrown about is very similar to Dec 2010.

The white fluffy substance is here again whoop whoop

Looking very likely that's its our turn for the wind down south. Current wind charts are saying 100mph+ along the south coast Tuesday daytime! Something to keep a eye on.

i check this thread for updates daily Nick :-) ,,, whats the outlook like for some decent snow event now looking at the models ?

Oh feck, my back garden fence is only just hanging onto life as it is :doh:

Well, I deliberately haven't mentioned snow. But the words "major snow event" are currently being chucked about. The trouble with the charts is that everyone starts to look so far ahead that it becomes pure simulation, rather than data based on actual weather.

gotcha ,,, guess thats why i like your forecasts so much as you prefer accuracy over possibilities ,, ok well ill keep checking here in hope :-)

Hi Nick,any chance you could extend your regular forecasts to cover Northern France.

12 hours later and the wind charts are the same, you can see the 80-90 centre running through the channel west to east. Coastal areas and northan france possibly gusts over 70mph.

Theres a definite shift for the areas of low presure moving further south each time now. This means the cold air gets dragged further south behind them.

http://www.southeastscoobies.co.uk/v...1&d=1454539635

Thanks Nick. Any sunshine on the way?

The area of low pressure on sat/sun has deepened rapidly. High winds possible 60mph gusts and a shed load of rain!

The Jet stream has has accelerated the weather, the LP will now arrive Sunday Night and through into Monday. The SW will take the brunt of it, but as it moves east along the coast. high winds and rain still expected.

As it pulls cold air in behind, chance of Sleet early Tuesday.

Well todays forcast in Central Scotland is erm cold and well white lol
http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/2016...bf522e11d9.jpg

Everyone needs to get up 5 minutes earlier for the next 4 to 5 days. Morning frosts and ice.

Not me i dont start work until 2pm lol

You have a yellow warning for Snow/Ice :ok:

Been having plenty of frost and ice for the last week or 2 as my daily routine is defrosting the :wife: car at 0530 in the morning :roll:

Dont get used to this warm weather....Charts for next week so some serious cold spells!! :-o

Nooo, just started looking forward to summer!

Strange weather here today (Crawley). Its 9 or 10c outside but we keep having little snow showers... :sos:

Snowing in Chichester too

snowing in coldean atm

Well, bonkers weather in Burgess Hill this evening. Thunder, lightning, and a shedload of hail that settled!

http://www.southeastscoobies.co.uk/v...psemiabrrn.jpg

http://www.southeastscoobies.co.uk/v...ps0latf4em.jpg

Got nothing where i am at the moment .

Some of you longer term members might remember a chap with the username Franklands Flyer from Hayward Heath with a white classic, probably 2007-2008 era on Sussex Scoobies. He lives in Burgess Hill these days as well and put this image on facebook earlier - all hail!

https://scontent-lhr3-1.xx.fbcdn.net...de&oe=57B80019

:worthy:

Hail!









Oh, sorry. Must have got the wrong end of the stick.

Thought someone would pick up on that pun :lol:

Bahahahahahaha :10:

You've a blizzard warning for Friday scotty ��

Mmmm started snowing lets see if it be there in the morning .

Nope gone mmmmm think i moved to the wrong area lol .

Summer...

You've probably seen the headlines already filtering through the tabloids etc etc

Hottest summer for 100 years

Just check who's reported or written it. Mr Madden and Mr Rao! You know, the same two that have for the last 4 years said

Worst winter for 100 years.....

The facts are, we're seeing the tail end of one of the strongest El Nino's ever recorded, and while it doesn't have and effect on our weather directly, it still changes it globally. The Jet stream is tracking further North than it normally does, and has been all winter, hence the warmer winter, not the coldest for 100000 years as reported!

El Nino reverses and turns into La Nina, which as El Nino does, it effects weather globally. Looking at Historical data rather than tabloids, every event of La Nina since 1900 has produced a warm start to the summer ( this is the tail end effect of El Nino ) then a colder finish.

The fact is though, you just cant forecast that far ahead, and then say in the national papers that its going to happen, because as we've seen from these two Muppets, trying to predict the weather for 3 months in advance is impossible.

Weather reports are generated by many different models and countries, each using their own slight variations due to geographical changes. These are called ensembles. Each country inputs their own data into the GFS, GEM, GEFS etc etc and this generates a rather messy looking report with 21 sets of data all overlay on top of each other. A average is then taken to create the actual weather report, all Rao and Madden do, is take the worst case data and then make their report up on that.

So who knows whats coming! There is a load of high pressure coming mid/end of next week which should see temps back up again though.

Well put Mortster. Ask any decent meteorologist not under the pressure of needing to obtain grant funding for their work, and they'll tell you no-one can predict weather with any useful degree of accuracy beyond 48hrs.

I still like this method of weather reporting, one of many variants I've seen over the years.

http://i762.photobucket.com/albums/x...pse2kmce56.jpg

Mmmm i see they are copying us men in skirts with the weather chart :lol:

For those desperately looking for summer.... This week it improves slightly, mainly south and south east, we get some warm air up from the continent. Still way below the seasonal average though. Make the most of it, as the North Atlantic is lining up some areas of low pressure to fire at us.

Unfortunately, this is pretty much the pattern for 2 to 3 weeks.

Lets hope we get a late Indian summer!

The only positive in this is for snow hunters, the sea temps around us haven't
Had a chance to rise yet, which increases the chance of any winter precipitation
Falling as snow!