For those weather geeks out there ( possibly only me
) so far the tabloids have been basing there forecast on previous records and science rather than actual forecast done via model runs. The OPI ( October pattern index ) has suggested with its result that this winter will be long and cold, when it arrives. This is what the Express and Mail have been banging on about, but its just pure science based on records that don't go back that far ( 1970's )
But...The two main ways of translating weather data into some for of usable data rather than a whole bunch of figures are GSM and GSR. Various forecasters use either one and up until last night, they have been producing very different weather models.
The run last night saw a coming together of the models, which has put a little bit of panic unto amateur and professional forecasters, and excitement.
This will obviously hit the papers at some point today/tomorrow with doom mongering news grabbing headline.
But the jist of it is, the jet stream will finally push south on or around Christmas day, allowing the cold air to move it, much colder than we've seen so far. How far south the cold air gets depends on how far the Jetstream tracks south. So Up North will almost 100% be bitterly cold, and the % of it affecting southern regions is growing.
Notice I haven't mentioned snow yet...that's because no forecaster on the planet can even predict this, until it forms and is visible on the GSM/GSR. So the news papers saying " Its going to snow for 10000 days" is utter ****e!
What the forecasters can say, is that if any precipitation runs into a cold area, its more than likely to fall as snow rather than rain. So the thing they look for is area's of low pressure being slung across the Atlantic towards us. Which this time of year is numerous.
So there you go, that's what happens to you when you work out side, weather geekdom.
