[Mortster]

Summer...

You've probably seen the headlines already filtering through the tabloids etc etc

Hottest summer for 100 years

Just check who's reported or written it. Mr Madden and Mr Rao! You know, the same two that have for the last 4 years said

Worst winter for 100 years.....

The facts are, we're seeing the tail end of one of the strongest El Nino's ever recorded, and while it doesn't have and effect on our weather directly, it still changes it globally. The Jet stream is tracking further North than it normally does, and has been all winter, hence the warmer winter, not the coldest for 100000 years as reported!

El Nino reverses and turns into La Nina, which as El Nino does, it effects weather globally. Looking at Historical data rather than tabloids, every event of La Nina since 1900 has produced a warm start to the summer ( this is the tail end effect of El Nino ) then a colder finish.

The fact is though, you just cant forecast that far ahead, and then say in the national papers that its going to happen, because as we've seen from these two Muppets, trying to predict the weather for 3 months in advance is impossible.

Weather reports are generated by many different models and countries, each using their own slight variations due to geographical changes. These are called ensembles. Each country inputs their own data into the GFS, GEM, GEFS etc etc and this generates a rather messy looking report with 21 sets of data all overlay on top of each other. A average is then taken to create the actual weather report, all Rao and Madden do, is take the worst case data and then make their report up on that.

So who knows whats coming! There is a load of high pressure coming mid/end of next week which should see temps back up again though.